Who will it be? Our Oscar nomination predictions

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Well, my little award show junkies, it is almost that time.  The Oscar nominations are set to come out at an ungodly hour tomorrow morning. Prognosticators, like myself, have been waiting for this moment since the Golden Globe nominations came out in mid-December.  We have studied the various guild award nominations, plugged all of the information into spreadsheets, put it through the super-secret computer program, and now we will let you all know what films will turn into “Oscar nominees”.  Let’s get started

 

Best Actor

bale
Christian Bale, Vice
washington
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
cooper
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
malek 2
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
mortensen
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

 

Rami Malek and Christian Bale both won Golden Globes earlier this month for their portrayals of Freddie Mercury and Dick Chaney, respectively.  They are sure things in this category.  Bradley Cooper will probably pick up his fourth acting nomination for his work in A Star is Born.  It is entirely possible that he will also pick up a nomination for Best Director.  While Green Bookwas largely forgotten by audiences, the critics and guilds have been bestowing heaps of praise and nominations on it.  I would not be surprised if Viggo Mortensen is nominated for the film.  The last spot will probably go to John David Washington for his work in BlacKkKlansman.  If there is an upset, it could go to either Steve Coogan or John C. Riley who portray Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy in Stan and Ollie.  I don’t think that will happen, as this film has not received much attention from American audiences and has not had a wide release. Lucas Hedges also might sneak in for his work in Boy Erased.

 

Best Actress

close
Glenn Close, The Wife
mccarthy
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
gaga
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
coleman 2
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
blunt
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Glenn Close, The Wife

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

 

I am going to get on my soapbox for a moment and just say why hasn’t Glenn Close won an Oscar yet??? I am hoping this is her year.  She is all but guaranteed to receive her seventh Oscar nomination for her work in The Wife.  Seven might be her lucky number (fingers crossed).  Lady Gaga will probably pick up a acting nomination along with a nomination for Best Song for her work in A Star is Born.  Olivia Coleman is perfectly horrid as a spoiled version of Queen Anne in The Favourite and Oscar will recognize her for it.  Melissa McCarthy took a dramatic turn this year in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the story of forger Lee Israel.  She continues to be nominated for awards for this work (most recently she was nominated for a BAFTA) so she will pick up a nomination on Tuesday morning.  The fifth spot is the hardest to call.  Emily Blunt was nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG for her work in Mary Poppins Returns, so I am going to go with her.  However, Viola Davis might steal the spot for her work in Widowsor Nicole Kidman’s work in The Destroyermay push her to a nomination.

 

Best Supporting Actor

rockwell
Sam Rockwell, Vice
ali
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
chalamet
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
grant 2
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
driver
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

 

The first four are pretty sure bets at this point.  All four have received Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations.  I would really be surprised to hear that one of them didn’t make the list.  That leaves one last spot.  This will either go to Sam Rockwell for his portrayal of George W. Bush in Vice or Sam Elliott for A Star is Born.  Both films have a lot of momentum going into the Oscars. Sam Elliott is a seasoned actor who has never received a nomination and Rockwell is coming off an Oscar win for last year’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.  If I have to choose, I am going to say Rockwell.  Oscar loves portrayals of real people, and that is Rockwell in this instance.

 

Best Supporting Actress

adams
Amy Adams, Vice
stone
Emma Stone, The Favourite
king
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
weisz
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
robbie
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Amy Adams, Vice

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Stone, Weisz, and Adams have all been nominated for the major awards thus far. I would say they are the sure thing when it comes to the Oscars.  The other two spots could go a number of different directions.  Regina King won the Golden Globe for If Beale Street Could Talk, but the film has not gained much traction since that win.  She did not receive a SAG nomination which is a huge blow to her odds of winning or even being nominated.  Margot Robbie missed a Golden Globe nomination, but she did receive ones for the SAGs and the BAFTAs.  Emily Blunt was widely praised for her work in A Quiet Placeearlier this year and was nominated for a SAG.  If she misses a nomination for Mary Poppinsthis might be her condolence prize. Finally, Clare Foy has been nominated for a Golden Globe and a BAFTA for playing Neil Armstrong’s wife, Janet, in First Man. I am going to pick Robbie and King as the final two nominees in this category.

 

Best Picture

favourite 2
The Favorite
roma 2
Roma
vice 2
Vice
star
A Star is Born
crazy rich asians
Crazy Rich Asians
rhapsody 2
Bohemian Rhapsody
panther 2
Black Panther
green book 2
Green Book
klansman 2
BlacKkKlansman
beale street 2
If Beale Street Could Talk

The Favourite

Vice

Green Book

A Star is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody

Roma

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

If Beale Street Could Talk

 

The Oscars may nominate anywhere from five to ten films each year for Best Picture.  The first seven films I have listed above have great chances for being Best Picture nominees.  The last three are real stretches, however, this is the whole reason for the Academy’s rule allowing up to 10 Best Picture nominees.  Black Pantherhas received rave reviews throughout the year, and has been nominated for multiple awards including the Producers Guild Award.  Crazy Rich Asians was a feel-good comedy based off of the best-selling novel.  The film was as winning as the book with audiences and critics.  Even though comedies are usually brushed to the side when it comes to Best Picture, this could be one that breaks the mold.  Beale Street started off strong with multiple Golden Globe nominations, however, it hasn’t been heard of very much since then.  It did get a Producers Guild nomination, which could remind people about the film.

 

The nominations will be announced tomorrow morning at 8:20 am ET/5:20 am PT by Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross.

-Ariadne Ansbro

 

 

 

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