Ari’s Oscar Predictions

Hello, my little award show junkies!  It has been a while since we last met, however, it is time for us to talk OSCARS! The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Before they are announced I am going to give you my predictions of whose name will be announced tomorrow morning in the Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress categories.

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

Belfast

Dune

Don’t Look Up

Licorice Pizza

CODA

King Richard

Tick, Tick…Boom!

West Side Story

The Tragedy of Macbeth

The two frontrunners in this category are Jane Champion’s western The Power of the Dog and Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast.  Both of these films have continuously been nominated for all of the pre-Oscar awards and it would be unheard of if they weren’t on the list for tomorrow.  I don’t know if I would call any of the other films on this list a lock.  King Richard is kind of a schlocky telling of Venus and Serena Williams’ upbringing, but it had gotten mixed reviews for being kind of formulaic. Don’t Look Up, West Side Story, and Tick, Tick…Boom! have also received mixed reviews.  Licorice Pizza, CODA, and The Tragedy of Macbeth have each been pretty well received, but none have been commercial successes.  I think at least seven of these films will end of up on this list, ultimately.  West Side Story and The Tragedy of Macbeth are probably the two in the most precarious situations.

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Will Smith, King Richard

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…Boom!

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Cumberbatch, Smith, and Garfield are pretty well placed to receive their second or third nominations in this category.  While Being the Ricardos has not received the best reviews, Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem have pretty consistently been praised as TV pioneers Lucielle Ball and Desi Arnez. Be prepared for Bardem to pick up a nomination here.  The fifth spot is a bit of a toss-up.  Denzel is an Academy darling, and Macbeth is Oscar bait.  However, I could see Peter Dinklage pulling an upset for his role in Cyrano. I am putting my money on Denzel this year.

Best Actress

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Coleman, The Lost Daughter

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

While the first four actresses were all nominated for Golden Globes and SAG Awards, the announcement of the BAFTA nominees last week threw everyone for a loop.  Only Lady Gaga received a BAFTA nomination.  This pretty much means that Gaga is a lock for a nomination.  Kidman won a Golden Globe for her performance as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos, so she is probably going to hear her name announced tomorrow morning along side Gaga’s.  Coleman has become an Oscar favorite over the past few years, and her performance as a woman coming to terms with her past in The Lost Daughter is sure to receive recognition.  While The Eyes of Tammy Faye did not receive much attention when it came out early this past fall, Chastain’s performance of the televangelist was recognized with both a Golden Globe and SAG nomination.  This will most likely mean that she will be receiving her third nomination tomorrow.  The last spot is a real wild card.  It could go to Kristin Stewart in Spencer, Jennifer Hudson in Respect, Rachel Ziegler in West Side Story, or Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers.  I am putting my money on Cruz.

Best Supporting Actor

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Smit-McPhee has consistently received raves for his performance in The Power of the Dog. His recent Golden Globe win will probably mean that he will receive his first Oscar nomination.  Likewise, Dornan, Hinds and Kotsur have all consistently received nominations for their work this past year in Belfast and CODA. The real question is if Ben Affleck will receive his first acting nomination after winning both Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture for Good Will Hunting and Argo, respectfully. There is a chance that Bradly Cooper could break into the category for his work in Licorice Pizza, or that Jerad Leto receives a surprise nomination for House of Gucci.  I am putting my money on Affleck. 

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

Ariana DeBose has been the frontrunner in this category for months, so she is pretty much a lock for a nomination.  Dunst and Balfe have also continued to receive nominations for their work in The Power of the Dog and Belfast.  When Passing first came out there was a lot of talk about nominations for both Negga and her co-star Tessa Thompson.  Thompson has not received as much recognition for her work, but Negga has been consistently nominated for many of the pre-Oscar awards. She will most likely pick up her second career nomination. Ellis started out awards season with a lot of momentum after receiving a Golden Globe nomination.  She lost a bit of speed after being passed over for a SAG award in favor of Cate Blanchette for her role in Nighmare Alley.  Having recently seen King Richard, Ellis has all of the things that make the Academy sit up and take notice for a supporting actress nomination.  She plays a strong, but put-upon spouse supporting her husband but also looking out for the well-being of her children.  Absolute catnip for Academy voters.  Let’s see it if pays off.  

What do you think of my predictions?  Any chance I am right?  Should I play the Powerball this weekend? Let us know what you think on Facebook or Twitter.  The Academy Award nominations will be announced tomorrow morning at 8:15 am EST/5:15 am PST.

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